WNBA Picks — September 24, 2026

Your WNBA picks September 24, 2026 focus on two matchups where the market and model align on favorites, though conviction levels differ sharply. With a compact WNBA schedule in play, home teams hold the clearer edges here, especially when rest and roster stability factor in. The board shows one high-confidence selection that stands out for its model backing and one lower-percentage lean that still offers positive expected value at the listed price. You should approach these WNBA picks today by sizing accordingly rather than forcing equal units across both.

Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics — Washington Mystics ML

Take Washington Mystics ML at -650. The model assigns this outcome a 90% probability, creating the clearest edge on the board and justifying the five-star rating. Chicago’s road form and overall roster construction leave them heavily outmatched, and the heavy price reflects that gap. At this confidence level the market line still provides value for disciplined bettors who accept the shorter payout in exchange for the high hit rate.

Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun — Connecticut Sun ML

Take Connecticut Sun ML at -160. The model edges this side at 57%, enough to clear the threshold for a modest two-star play. Home-court factors and the Sun’s ability to control tempo give them the slight but measurable advantage over a Toronto side still finding its footing. The price is fair rather than generous, so smaller sizing keeps the bet within proper bankroll allocation.

Overall board confidence sits with the top selection while the second remains a lower-variance add-on. Model edges reflect probabilities, not certainties, so treat every wager as part of a long-term process and only risk amounts you can afford to lose.