Soccer Picks — September 24, 2026

You have 19 matches to work through on Soccer picks September 24, 2026. The board shows clear separation between high-conviction moneyline leans and more measured totals plays. Five-star selections stand out early, led by Portugal and Lithuania, while several under 2.5 angles appear in tighter international fixtures. Model edges range from the low 40s to the low 90s, so focus on the top-rated spots first and size accordingly. Soccer picks today favor sides with both price and statistical backing rather than chasing longshots. Draw outcomes remain possible in several games but the data points toward decisive results in the strongest leans.

Wales vs Portugal — Portugal ML

Take Portugal ML at +1300. The model assigns this 92% confidence, the highest on the board, driven by Portugal’s superior squad depth and historical dominance against Welsh sides. You see a clear mismatch that the market has priced too generously. This remains a three-outcome game, yet the data heavily favors an away win over a draw or home result.

Lithuania vs Liechtenstein — Lithuania ML

Back Lithuania ML at +1200 with 87% model confidence. Lithuania holds the stronger attacking metrics and faces the weakest opponent on the slate. The price offers value against a Liechtenstein side that rarely keeps clean sheets or creates chances. Draw risk exists but the lean stays firmly with the home side.

Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua — Dominican Republic ML

Play Dominican Republic ML at -220. The 76% model edge reflects better recent form and home advantage. Nicaragua’s road record is poor, making the favorite the logical choice in this three-outcome match.

Israel vs Austria — Austria ML

Grab Austria ML at +700. Model confidence sits at 76%, supported by Austria’s organized defense and ability to nick results on the road. Israel has struggled to close games, leaving room for the visitors.

South Korea vs Ecuador — Under 2.5

Take under 2.5 at the listed price with 74% model support. Both sides prioritize structure over open play, limiting high-quality chances. Expect a controlled match rather than a goal fest.

Japan vs Uruguay — Under 2.5

Target under 2.5 with 70% confidence. Japan’s possession style often meets Uruguay’s compact block, producing fewer clear openings than the market anticipates.

Greece vs Serbia — Under 2.5

Back under 2.5 at 68% model confidence. Two defensively sound teams meet, raising the likelihood of a low-scoring draw or narrow win.

Ireland vs Kosovo — Under 2.5

Play under 2.5 with 68% support. Ireland’s measured approach against Kosovo’s counter style points to limited goal volume.

Malta vs Andorra — Over 1.5

Take over 1.5 at 67% model confidence. Both teams concede regularly, increasing the chance of at least two goals.

Costa Rica vs Curacao — Costa Rica ML

Back Costa Rica ML at -180 with 66% confidence. Home strength and Curacao’s limited attacking threat make the favorite the clearest side.

Cayman Islands vs Dominica — Dominica ML

Play Dominica ML at -195. The 62% model edge comes from Dominica’s better organization and finishing in similar fixtures.

Haiti vs Trinidad and Tobago — Haiti ML

Take Haiti ML at -170. Model confidence is 60%, reflecting Haiti’s edge in recent head-to-head results and home form.

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios FC — Atletico Nacional ML

Back Atletico Nacional ML at -130. The 59% model lean rests on home dominance and Millonarios’ inconsistent away performances.

Germany vs Netherlands — Under 3.5

Target under 3.5 at 57% confidence. High-quality sides often produce structured games that stay under inflated totals.

Palestine vs New Zealand — Under 2.5

Play under 2.5 with 55% model support. Limited attacking resources on both sides favor a low-scoring outcome.

Denmark vs Norway — Norway ML

Take Norway ML at +350. The 53% edge reflects Norway’s counter-attacking threat against a Denmark side that can leave gaps.

Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu — Over 2.5

Back over 2.5 at 48% confidence. Both teams tend to concede in open matches, supporting a higher goal total.

Uzbekistan vs Iran — Under 2.5

Play under 2.5 with 47% model backing. Iran’s defensive setup usually keeps games tight on the road.

Puerto Rico vs Guyana — Under 2.5

Target under 2.5 at 43% confidence. The data points to a cautious game with few clear scoring opportunities.

The board carries moderate overall conviction, strongest on the five-star moneyline plays. Model percentages provide edges but never guarantees, so manage your bankroll responsibly and only stake amounts you can afford to lose. Review each line against live movement before committing.