ITF & Challenger Tennis Picks — September 17, 2026

Today's ITF & Challenger Tennis picks September 17, 2026 feature 15 lower-tier matches across ITF W75, M25, M15, W50, and Challenger events. ITF & Challenger Tennis picks today lean heavily toward favorites, with five-star convictions on Jeline Vandromme, Bernard Tomic, Fajing Sun, Ilia Simakin, and Francesco Maestrelli standing out due to model edges above 74%. You will see consistent support for players priced between -1600 and -325 where the data shows clear separation. High variance remains the norm at this level, so these edges require disciplined sizing rather than aggressive positions. Focus on the top-rated plays while treating anything below three stars as lower-priority.

Elena Malygina vs Jeline Vandromme — Jeline Vandromme ML

Take Jeline Vandromme at -1600. The model assigns this match a 90% probability, the highest on the board, reflecting a steep talent gap that makes the heavy favorite the clear side. This is a five-star selection built for smaller stakes given the lopsided odds.

Jake Delaney vs Bernard Tomic — Bernard Tomic ML

Back Bernard Tomic at -375. The 75% model rating supports the veteran’s experience edge in this ITF M25 matchup, producing another five-star lean with solid projected hold rates.

Fajing Sun vs Alexandr Binda — Fajing Sun ML

Play Fajing Sun at -350. A 75% model projects the favorite to control the Challenger encounter through superior consistency, marking the third five-star play of the slate.

Ilia Simakin vs Blake Ellis — Ilia Simakin ML

Take Ilia Simakin at -375. The model registers 75% confidence, favoring the player with the stronger recent form in this ITF M15 fixture for another top-rated selection.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Francesco Maestrelli — Francesco Maestrelli ML

Back Francesco Maestrelli at -325. The 74% model edge highlights the Italian’s ranking advantage in the Challenger match, delivering a five-star recommendation.

Matteo Martineau vs Borna Gojo — Borna Gojo ML

Play Borna Gojo at -325. A 74% model rating points to the higher-ranked player’s surface reliability as the deciding factor in this Challenger contest.

Mika Brunold vs Francesco Forti — Mika Brunold ML

Take Mika Brunold at -275. The model assigns 71% confidence, supporting the favorite’s edge in this ITF M25 encounter for a four-star play.

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs James Kent Trotter — James Kent Trotter ML

Back James Kent Trotter at -240. A 69% model rating favors the player with the clearer path to victory in the Challenger matchup.

Izan Almazan Valiente vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Carlo Alberto Caniato ML

Play Carlo Alberto Caniato at -225. The 67% model supports the favorite’s consistency in this ITF M25 match for a four-star lean.

Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Nastasja Schunk — Nastasja Schunk ML

Take Nastasja Schunk at -220. A 66% model rating backs the higher-ranked player in the ITF W50 event.

Marvin Moeller vs Marco Cecchinato — Marco Cecchinato ML

Back Marco Cecchinato at -190. The 63% model provides a three-star edge based on the Italian’s experience differential.

Samuele Pieri vs Alex Barrena — Alex Barrena ML

Play Alex Barrena at -170. A 61% model rating supports the slight favorite in this ITF M25 contest.

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Francisca Jorge — Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva ML

Take Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at -150. The 58% model produces a two-star lean toward the player holding the modest edge.

Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo vs Daniel Elahi Galan — Daniel Elahi Galan ML

Back Daniel Elahi Galan at -145. A 57% model rating gives this a two-star designation in the Challenger matchup.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano vs Tommaso Compagnucci — Tommaso Compagnucci ML

Play Tommaso Compagnucci at -135. The 55% model supplies the lone one-star lean on the board.

Overall board confidence sits highest on the five-star selections, yet lower-tier tennis outcomes carry elevated variance. Size all wagers conservatively and remember that model percentages represent edges, not certainties. Manage your bankroll accordingly across the full slate.